This week’s economic releases, although few in number, will provide an indication silver jewellery of just how cash-strapped consumers are prior to the traditional Christmas spending spree.
The first such announcement, US retail sales for October, is out today and the headline figure is expected to show a slight improvement on September. The consensus forecast is for a roughly 1 per cent increase in headline sales.
This expected rise in the October figure is the result of a rebound in vehicle sales, which have increased by an annualised amount of 10.5m for the month, translating into a 3 per cent increase in retail sales for motor vehicle and parts dealers.
UK retail sales for October are released on Thursday. Based on figures from the British Retail Consortium and surveys by the CBI, the employers organisation, analysts’ consensus forecast is for an increase on September of about 0.5 per cent. Although a small improvement, it is heartening after the previous release, which saw sales remain flat at zero per cent growth.
The week will also reveal how consumer prices have fared in the US and UK during October silver earrings, in addition to the final release of eurozone consumer prices for the month.
US consumer price index figures come on Wednesday. Although these are expected to have increased from September (by about 0.2 per cent), there will still be deflation compared with the same period last year, with analysts expecting this to be at -0.3 per cent. The upward pressure on prices since September is the result of increases in energy costs, specifically heating oil costs.
UK CPI figures for October are released tomorrow, and analysts expect headline inflation to have increased by 1.4 per cent. September’s inflation figures came in lower than the consensus forecast mainly because of weaker than expected growth in food prices. Petrol prices also declined, falling a reported 1.2 per cent in October. Analysts, however, see both these declines as only a temporary lull and expect upward pressure to reassert itself on both these items this month.
The final announcement of the eurozone harmonised CPI for October is made today, and is forecast to silver key rings be the same as the -0.1 per cent annual change of the flash estimate.
Thursday brings the final release of UK public finance data for October, ahead of the pre-Budget report in early December. Analysts expect public sector net borrowing to be at about pound(s)7bn for the month, with the Treasury forecasting total borrowing for the 2009-10 fiscal year at pound(s)175bn. HSBC analysts view this as overly pessimistic and expect total borrowing for the year to come in at pound(s)153bn.
Other prominent releases this week are Japanese gross domestic product figures, due out today. Analysts are expecting modest growth in Japan’s economy over the third quarter, with a consensus of 0.7 per cent from the previous three months.
Failure to meet expectations may lead to some serious questions about the quality of the recovery in Japan’s silver necklaces economy, particularly if third-quarter growth drops below the 0.6 per cent rise seen in the second quarter.
US industry comes into focus tomorrow with the release of producer prices data for October. The headline producer price index is forecast to be up 0.8 per cent on September because of higher energy costs.