The gradual change of sentiment from the negative in the beginning of the year to the positive by the year-end should demonstrate the course some of these commodities have charted during the year.
Market fundamentals of demand and supply, changing inventory levels, currency fluctuations tiffany jewelry and investor interest have all had their say in impacting prices and provided a strong end to the year, least expected at the beginning.
Interestingly, crude is ending the year at a level that most producers are likely to perceive as benign.
Oil market balances are normalising. With improvements in underlying global demand, price aspirations are sure to move higher in the New Year. Sugar prices have set yet another fresh 28-year high (testing 26 cents a pound) with the fundamental backdrop supporting prices.
That brings us to the eternal favourite gold. Prices are up 30 per cent so far this year, despite the precious metal’s weak fundamentals. Expansion of mine supply, decline in jewellery demand, rise in scrap sales to a new high – almost everything was going against the metal, except of course investor interest.
Uncertainty in the financial markets and inflation expectation has fuelled interest in gold as a safe haven investment and hedge against inflation.
The official sector, seller for two decades, is now a buyer. This single factor has infused a bullish outlook to the precious metal.
With the dollar strengthening against the euro last week, gold suffered huge losses.
For the first time since November 6, prices fell below $1,100 an ounce weighed down by drop in equity tiffany accessories too. On Friday, London PM Fix was at $1,104.50/oz, down from $1,117/oz the previous day. Silver too fell in sympathy to $ 17.31/oz (Friday AM Fix) from $ 11.40/oz of the previous day. However, speculative interest in gold is still at elevated levels.
In the absence of fresh fundamental news-flows, short-term factors such as dollar strengthening is likely to pressure gold prices lower in the near term. Silver’s fundamentals are poor.
However, there is strong investor interest as a cheap proxy for the yellow metal.
So, silver is more vulnerable to downside price movement in the event the dollar strengthens.
Into the next year, experts assert gold prices will continue to be supported by strong investor appetite and central bank buying. Central banks seem to show signs that they are switching from net sellers of gold to net buyers.
It is anybody’s guess what would happen over the coming months.
The year 2009 is the first year since 1989 when central bank sales and purchases are somewhat balanced. That is tffany keys year end news for gold bulls.